Nomura: Indian MHCV Market Gearing Up for Growth

By Amit Jangra | Published Date : January 01, 2026

Nomura says Indian M&HCV market may grow 8% in FY26 and 10% in FY27. Replacement demand, fleet efficiency and pickups, mini trucks, 10 wheelers trucks support growth.

After slow growth period, Indian medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) market is expected to start next upcycle. Nomura report says volumes may grow 8% in FY26 and 10% in FY27. Experts say growth is supported by stronger industry fundamentals. Truck operators and transport companies are likely to replace old vehicles and invest in new models.

Replacement Demand is Rising

Table of Contents

1. Replacement Demand is Rising

2. Profitability Boosts Fleet Investment

3. Dedicated Freight Corridor Impact

4. Outlook Looks Positive

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Report says replacement demand will increase in FY27–28. Higher freight rates, GST benefits and average truck age of around 10 years are pushing operators to update fleets. New trucks, mini trucks, pickups and 10 wheelers trucks are expected to see more orders as operators focus on efficiency and better fleet performance.

Profitability Boosts Fleet Investment

Nomura points out that fleet operators’ profits are rising due to better freight rates and GST savings. With more cash in hand, they can buy modern trucks. This is key for revival because higher profits push operators to replace old pickups, mini trucks and 10 wheelers trucks with newer models.

Dedicated Freight Corridor Impact

Some people worry that the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will reduce truck demand. Nomura says risk is small. Even if Eastern and Western DFCs work at full capacity, road transport still moves around 30% of non-bulk cargo. Certain sub-segments like tractor-trailers may normalize, but overall demand for trucks, mini trucks, pickups and 10 wheelers trucks will stay strong.

Outlook Looks Positive

The report concludes that this is just start of M&HCV upcycle, but growth potential is big. Replacement demand, fleet efficiency and better economic conditions can support long-term growth. Mini trucks, pickups and 10 wheelers trucks will likely see more demand in coming years.

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Frequently Asked Questions on Commercial Vehicles

1: How much is Indian M&HCV market expected to grow?

Ans: Nomura predicts 8% growth in FY26 and 10% in FY27.

2: What is driving replacement demand in the truck market?

Ans: Higher freight rates, GST benefits and old truck fleets of around 10 years are pushing operators to buy new trucks, mini trucks, pickups and 10 wheelers trucks.

3: Will the Dedicated Freight Corridor reduce truck demand?

Ans: No, Nomura says the risk is small. Even with DFC at full capacity, road transport still handles around 30% of non-bulk cargo.

4: How does profitability affect fleet investment?

Ans: Rising profits from better freight rates and GST savings let fleet operators invest in new trucks, mini trucks, pickups and 10 wheelers trucks, supporting industry revival.

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